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Question of the Week Archive (10+ years)

Pin the Tail on the Donkey beats the takeout (long term)

There is a serious problem with your observation.

We could look at it scientifically, ie, as an experiment.

How do Chalkies do when tasked with picking winners?

Obviously our CONTROL would be, "How do random selections do when tasked with picking winners?"

Another control - bare minimum handicapping - would be random picks that exclude posts 6 or 7. Or 5,6,7.

We would perform these tests as opposed to assuming that the expected long term W betting loss would be 25%.

What does your DB tell you?

Mine tells me that arbitrarily starting with Jan 13, 2016 thru ~ current, and betting all posts in { 1, 2, 3, 4, 8 } gives you:

4,309 bets @ $10 -> cost of 43,090
3,037 wins return -> $42,904

Therefore a return of 99.6%!

However, that would have been a flop last night since 6 / 7 came in 4 times.


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