Re(2): TampaDave captures Spring Fling Posted on June 19, 2017 at 01:51:08 AM by StraymarJA
Thanks Tiger for a fun contest. I just retired so it gave me something to do.
I hooked up an old desktop computer and used an ancient DOS program from years ago that a programmer wrote for me that simulates the game of jai-alai where one enters players records, whether it's singles or doubles, and whether it's a 7-point or 9-point game. Part of the program output is the Win % for each team or singles player. My strategy was use the computer pick with the highest win % for my contest pick, but I was eliminating Erik (who usually came out highest %) and went with the second highest % for my selection on all games he played. The theory there was that Erik is over-bet and the $2 value for the win payoff would be too low.
The strategy worked pretty good until they threw me a curve ball when they mixed-up some early game players with late game players on Friday mat/eve. I had limited or no data available for some of those players and no team records for some of the match-ups. Also missed many game points, on that day I even had two games where my contest pick lost game point twice in one game.
Again, kudos to Tiger! Tiger, you may want to consider the possibility of putting a cap on the win payoff of 20:1 (thus a $42 max payoff for a win ticket). I used to travel to Reno and Vegas to enter horse handicapping contests. Those type of contests were based on a mythical $2 Win & Place wager and they had caps on Win bets that were 20:1 or 25:1 and a cap on Place bets of 10:1 or 12:1. These contests were conducted differently as they were done in real-time (didn't have to advance all wagers before first race) and the caps on payouts was to prevent someone that was way behind from just picking the "bomb" horses that could pay huge in order to have a chance to win. The caps helped ensure it was a more valid contest of handicapping ability.
Also, thanks to all who participated. I really enjoyed the challenge of competing with you. Congrats TampaDave!! Replies: