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Re(2): new (borrowed) bet idea for Dania

Looks like you have good intentions, but the math just isn't there.

I looked at an explanation of the horse racing "Grand Slam" bet at americasbestracing dot net and they say that it is:

Top 3
Top 3
Top 3

They give an example of a bet structured as 2 x 5 x 5 x 3 $1 that costs $150.

They showed how actual payoffs can be as low as $20. Another case payed $1,064.

However, this bet - particularly the way you modified it - is not a good fit for jai-alai.

The main problem is the HUGE built-in post position bias caused by our Spectacular Scoring system.

If you start the first leg with your Top 4 from the superfecta, then selecting either post 1 or 2 gets you in 59% of the time. Take both 1 and 2 and you are up to 89.5%. And if you want to brute force it with 3 selections, { 1, 2, 3 }, now you can count on passing the first leg at a 98.5% success rate.

If you take the same 3 picks in your second leg in a tri game, you will be right about 94.4% of the time.

Third leg, you say W or P, so let's cut it down to just taking 1 and 2. That's 79.6%.

So a 3 x 3 x 2 bet costs $18 and you will be alive 98.5 x 94.4 x 79.6 = 74% of the time.

Then, picking 1 or 2 in the final leg gives you about a 1 in 6 chance of winning the whole thing.

So, if spending $18 gives you a 1 in 12 chance of winning, how big can the pot possibly get? Somebody would hit almost every time.

And... those calculations don't even include obvious favorites who dominate from low posts.

Bottom line is that because of the huge post position bias, a bet that allows you to win by wagering that post 1 or 2 are in the top 4 or top 3 will never get a big payoff.

It's just too easy to be right.


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