Tiger's Jai-Alai Chalk Talk
Discussion forum for Jai-Alai Heaven
Foro de la discusión para el Cielo de Cesta Punta

hits since 8/12/03

Chalk Talk Registration      Participación en Chalk Talk
Useful Links     Hall of Fame     Dania scratches
Question of the Week Archive (10+ years)
"King of the Hill" - Official Rules


Use these links to enter King of the Hill picks
Thu 11/23 Fri 11/24 Sat 11/25 Eve Sun 11/26 Mon 11/27
Holiday Entries Entries No contest  
  My Picks My Picks    

Re(5): What should average Jai-Alai fan do on Wagering?

I don't think his claim is out of the question.

You have to remember that this is parimutuel betting - that is, betting against the group, and therefore to win, you have to be doing something better than almost everyone else. Or find something they don't see or understand.

So, answer honestly - how many people here are betting trifectas based on a key post to show?

Probably 1 or 0.

So at least that meets a key requirement - do what other people ain't.

My guess is that most of the focus is on win selections, and if you could learn to ID guys who would be "in there" - as opposed to dominating winners - you might be getting some decent prices here and there.

I wonder if you pay attention enough to notice that in Tiger's weekly recaps, the top 5 or so winners almost always are below average in the show department. Yet the underfrogs at the bottom somehow manage to grab more than their share of 3rd places. Been going on forever.

And I seriously doubt if many computer guys have that covered since it doesn't fit the 'ratings plus simulation' model.

Of course, I am not in a position to know if elvasco is tapping into that effect, but if so, why wouldn't it produce some nice prices on occasion?

But aside from that, there are some puzzle-ring questions.

If you can consistently get 25+%, then why $1 bets? Bumping up the wager amount would decrease the payoff somewhat but increase the net winnings.

Ditto for expanding the number of selections. If you can haul it in with only 8 picks, probably you can still do very well with 12, again increasing your net return.

So that issue favors the skeptics.

But overall, I think that if one were to love jai-alai, watch jai-alai a lot, and strive to develop an observational system of finding teams / players that would be 'in there' - as opposed to winning - it could work.








Replies:


You must register before you can post on this board. You can register here.

Post a reply:
Username:
Password:
Subject:
Message:
Link Name:
Link URL:
Image URL:

Do you want to post on Chalk Talk?
In order to post your own messages on Chalk Talk, you must first register as a member.
USE THIS LINK >>> Chalk Talk Registration <<< USE THIS LINK to register.
Do NOT use the link above the posting box that says 'You must register ... register here'. It will not work.
Please report problems/questions directly to the Den E-mail: rsbassociates at mindspring dot com
Tiger's Jai-Alai Chalk Talk logos, format and graphics copyright © 2003-2017 by RSB Associates
Create Your Own Free Message Board or Free Forum!
Hosted By Boards2Go Copyright © 2000-2015
Our Sites: Wedding address collection  Wedding thank you wording