Re(5): What should average Jai-Alai fan do on Wagering? Posted on November 5, 2017 at 10:36:01 AM by Craig G
I don't think his claim is out of the question.
You have to remember that this is parimutuel betting - that is, betting against the group, and therefore to win, you have to be doing something better than almost everyone else. Or find something they don't see or understand.
So, answer honestly - how many people here are betting trifectas based on a key post to show?
Probably 1 or 0.
So at least that meets a key requirement - do what other people ain't.
My guess is that most of the focus is on win selections, and if you could learn to ID guys who would be "in there" - as opposed to dominating winners - you might be getting some decent prices here and there.
I wonder if you pay attention enough to notice that in Tiger's weekly recaps, the top 5 or so winners almost always are below average in the show department. Yet the underfrogs at the bottom somehow manage to grab more than their share of 3rd places. Been going on forever.
And I seriously doubt if many computer guys have that covered since it doesn't fit the 'ratings plus simulation' model.
Of course, I am not in a position to know if elvasco is tapping into that effect, but if so, why wouldn't it produce some nice prices on occasion?
But aside from that, there are some puzzle-ring questions.
If you can consistently get 25+%, then why $1 bets? Bumping up the wager amount would decrease the payoff somewhat but increase the net winnings.
Ditto for expanding the number of selections. If you can haul it in with only 8 picks, probably you can still do very well with 12, again increasing your net return.
So that issue favors the skeptics.
But overall, I think that if one were to love jai-alai, watch jai-alai a lot, and strive to develop an observational system of finding teams / players that would be 'in there' - as opposed to winning - it could work.