Hoots mon! Posted on November 10, 2017 at 04:36:26 PM by Craig G
This is not like "The Hot Scots" with Larry, Moe, and Shemp impersonating Scotsmen when they show up at the great hall of Glenheather Castle wearing kilts, awaiting the Earl, and a nervous Shemp asks, "Hey Moe, is my slip showin'?" Or later, "Hi Lorna. How ya Doone?
No, nothing like that.
Therefore I'll go with Sour Milk for $500.
The answer is - "In dairy terms, a very good reason why we must remain skeptical about this whole Due Number business."
tick...tick...tick... ok... Alex, what is "The curds get in the whey?"
Of course by 'curds', I mean the logical implications that get in the 'whey' of our faith that numbers can in fact be due.
Now, I actually built up a lengthy chain-of-logic type of argument for this, but too many words - forget it.
Very, very simply:
For a Due Number Theory to have any meaning, then in its 'Due' state, a number must be significantly more likely to hit than usual.
If so, then that implies that at all other times, the 'Not Due' state, the number has to less be likely than usual.
For example - according to Tiger's Pure Trifecta Probabilities, overall the number 635 is about a 1 in 201 frequency.
If you want to make 10% profit on a DN system with this number, then in the 'Due' state, 635 needs to come in approx 1 in 136 times, meaning 47% more likely than our base expectation.
If Due Number Theory is right, then the Pure Trifecta Probabilities are wrong.
Any number that qualifies as potentially 'Due', must exist in 1 of 2 possible states.
If 'Due', then it has a significantly higher probability than what is shown.
If 'Not Due', then somewhat less likely than what is shown - eg: 635 goes from 1 in 201 to about 1 in 211.
But it will never match the figures provide by Tiger.
Correct me if I am wrong.
BTW, I am not actually ridiculing 'Due Numbers'. Just examining the implications, the same way I attack any and all ideas re jai-alai theory.
Truth is I have spent zero time testing Due Numbers out. So who knows, they may work. At any rate, no more Due Numbers posting from me.