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One response - that's plenty

The answer that I was thinking of was the 34 Q.

Based on 48k Dania 7-pt games, here are the Q returns where the Q's are sorted in descending order of prob.

12 -0.098304613
13 -0.147595642
23 -0.088427773
14 -0.11057839
24 -0.138541452
15 -0.183511461
25 -0.191190172
16 -0.178633487
26 -0.188269366
34 -0.129205487

38 -0.164609185
35 -0.25274766
36 -0.232045389
18 -0.220478934
28 -0.2132436
17 -0.207476192
27 -0.262087233
37 -0.209607536
48 -0.173211856
47 -0.220887785
58 -0.287824133
46 -0.241239642
45 -0.238028198
57 -0.31343942
68 -0.36154409
56 -0.339607124
67 -0.387123305
78 -0.524884569

Now, for whatever reason, I haven't combined my Dania pre-2015-closed-year data with the 2016-onward data. But the 34Q pattern holds there, and also in Tiger's "Quiniela vs. Boxed Exacta Analysis" from Miami 2002.

Why say stealth? Because despite all the focus on post 1 and 2 in betting, probability-wise, the 34 sneaks in ahead of 17, 18, 27 and 28.

Your own suggestion (which I am not knocking)

If one wants to have fun and keep the games interesting, just spend $7 a game on this quinella wheel:

12 / 12345

would - if used by many - pump the 34 up even more.

I did a "Subtractive Handicapping" study in the early doubles games where you go a month or so in, determine from the records who are the 3 or 4 most outclassed within the group, and then select 34Q in ALL games except when one of those guys are in post 3 or 4.

That reduced the loss to only 3 or 4%.

Not bad for chimp-level handicapping.


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