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Question of the Week Archive (10+ years)

Re(5): Jai Alai Player Metrics

Just happened to notice in today's Miami matinee that the 542 in game 5 paid $2,164 and the
413 in game 6 paid $26.A beautiful example of a statistician thinking :"Should I have known
that those payoffs with those numbers are predictable?".The answer is a resounding YES!!!
I'm sure that most of you realize that my reason for posting this thread was more out of
intellectual curiosity than anything else.I realize that betting jai alai is much more of an art
than a science.However,something like today's payoff results are actually quite predictable.In the
old days (say 1980 in Ct.) you could see printout posted even before the game was over of exactly
how much money was bet on each trifecta combination.I was always amazed at how consistent the
betting patterns were from game to game regardless of who the players were.Sure people would bet
somewhat heavier than expected on certain combinations when better players were in those post
positions but that still made the betting patterns predictable because you could take that into
account.In Miami today with such low handle and only "hard core" gamblers left the pattern is still
quite predictable.For example,Aritz is extremely "over bet" and someone like Jon extremely "under bet".Both the 542 and the 413 are relatively easy numbers to come out but very few people realize
that the 542 bet in game 5 was a much smarter bet than the 413 bet in game 6 even if it didn't
come out.Remember the betting pattern is just as important as any dreamworld database!!!


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