Jai-5'ers 'screwed' for first 2 weeks Posted on February 1, 2018 at 05:55:14 PM by Craig G
To understand this bet, it is important to see that it now exists in a bastardized form.
Originally seeded with $1000, that clearly wasn't thought through well enough, and a change had to be made. But the ZERO dollar seed was thought through even more poorly.
Let's get a handle on this by assuming that out of the 5 games of a typical performance, a handicapper might have probabilities like this:
1 in 4 chance ----> 1 game
1 in 5 chance ----> 2 games
1 in 5.5 chance --> 2 games
I chose those approximations because post 1 or 2 is normally at 1 in 6.1 or so, but when you put Erik, Diego, Zulaika with strong partners in the best posts, clearly you can do much better than 1 in 6.
So, doing the math, those figures work out to a 1 in 3025 chance of hitting the Jai-5. Let's call it 1 in 3000.
That means that with no seed, in the early days of the bet you are shooting for a $30 or whatever hit with a 1 in 3000 chance of nailing it.
Therefore, you have an wagering expectation of a 98% LOSS of your money.
That is an amazingly horrible bet that is even worse than a 6-7-8 tri-box.
IOW, for the Jai-5 jackpot to get started, to gradually pick up momentum, it requires that a small group of parimutuel imbeciles throw away small amounts of money for 2 weeks straight. that can't be right.
I should point out that using the same calculations, the bet with the $1000 seed works out to only -33% in the beginning, which isn't all that bad, considering.
However, as I posted before, it appears that once a $200 carryover is reached, you can count on a significant momentum shift within 3 or 4 performances. So even though a puny $200 seed still makes for a seriously losing wager at first, it gets us out of the el stinko phase fairly quickly.
One other thing to add that hasn't been mentioned.
It looks like the Fair Play system, or random post assignment, works against this bet.
If you compare the daily shedule with an initial deal in a hand of poker, maybe you get something like:
IOW, at any time, a random easy draw can come up that where the low numbers and obvious faves fall right into place. No wonder the $1000 seed failed.
So I think for this kind of bet to thrive in jai-alai, it's much better to have the old handicapped post positions. Which I believe was the case during the Pick 6 days. Harder to pick when each post is closer to a 1 in 8 shot.
My recommendation is for Dania to bite the bullet and use some of the 'parking lot' money to seed the Jai-5 at $200. Or even better, $300. I think that it would be seen in a much more positive light.