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Question of the Week Archive (10+ years)

Re(2): Lawrence Welk Edges Into Break Even Position

Ok, let's try this.

We know that when the pool is less than about $4,000, the 1/2 X 5 is a losing play. (Along with all other number-based plays.)

If we assume that once the pool reaches this size or higher, then this obvious play will surely attract a few players, and thus STILL be a losing play.

Inescapable conclusion: the 1/2 X 5 is ALWAYS a losing play.

So the game theory turns out to be pretty simple. Two tiers.

Low pool -> lose for payoff / probability reasons

High pool -> lose for attracting bettors to obvious easy numbers, making solo hit impossible

Which proves that anyone who ever bought 1/2 X 5 threw away their money.

Which also applies to all heavy faves for exactly the same reasons, and aligns with the multi-ticket favorite-limiting strategy that StraymarJA has discussed.

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