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Question of the Week Archive (10+ years)

Re(2): Jai-5 growing a bit faster this time

"There is nothing exciting about the size of the pool at this point."

I posted a suggestion before that seeding the Jai-5 with even a mere $200 would have significant benefits.

One other poster here used the word "flounders" to describe the initial phase.

That is a perfect description. When the cycle begins, and remains less than $300, the expected return for bettors is something like a 90 to 95% loss. Absolutely horrible bet.

However, if you were to plot the carryover numbers via spreadsheet, you'd probably detect a pattern that once $200 is reached, within 4 or 5 performances the acceleration begins. And as the last cycle shows, if not hit at the $1500 level, it can really take off.

So there are essentially 4 phases.

A - beginning, horrible sucker play that no one should play, and therefore may flounder for weeks

B - just after $300 or so is reached, a clear pattern of acceleration - not a good bet per se, but getting better daily.

C - $1500 or so, actually worthwhile to shoot for

D - $2500 and up, very exciting - by jai-alai standards - and guaranteed to mushroom if not hit

This requires a little bit of thinking, but as things stand, due to 'floundering', the Jai-5 is probably spending most of its time in the garbage / unplayable phase. Not good PR to have a bet that most of the time stinks.

But a small seed, combined with the residual excitement from the previous cycle could get us into the B phase almost immediately.

Of course, if you compare it to horse pools, it is insignificant.

But if you love jai-alai, this is an interesting bet that can potentially generate excitement. Getting to $200 quickly decimates the initial ugly phase and heads right to the good stuff.




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