Re(1): 453 tri low payoff at MC Posted on July 10, 2018 at 02:42:51 PM by Craig G
I was trying to figure out why the low payoff. Noticed the bottom of program picks for that game were: 458 and 473
Not only was Anderluck a classic pent-up-frustration dropdown from the lates, not only was he going for his 3rd consecutive win in the earlies, but the selectors had also picked him in all 3 games.
In fact, 'Istuarte' had just delivered a cold 825 for $294 in the preceding game.
So his 4-5-8 pick would understandably get the crowds attention.
It is also likely that in the early going, people will pay more attention to the the selectors than they will once they become more familiar with the roster and form their own strong opinions.
Besides that, with specific tri combo's, you could say that, "A rising tide lifts all boats". Meaning that if you rate a red-hot Anderluck, buzz-sawing thru the earlies and now in post 4 as maybe a 1 in 3 win chance, then our 453 has improved automatically to about a 1 in 200 shot. And that's without considering the strengths and weaknesses of the other posts.
But if I bump up Cool Fitness and Asier, and downgrade Baller (all within reasonable limits), that 453 can be rated at 1 in 125 or so. Which would now make the $266 price a tiny overlay.
That is definitely a stretch handicapping-wise, but not 100% after-the-fact cheating either.