Re(2): Typo in Dania results for Sat mat 9-22 g 12 Posted on October 1, 2018 at 12:49:25 PM by Craig G
I'm not 100% crazy about "Ballet with Bullets", but I certainly respect the massive effort and the thinking behind it.
Don't you think it's interesting that he claims that he is shooting for a 50% profit? And all-importantly, while most jai-alai expert level bettors are counting on a big free boost by way of the trifecta biases caused by Spec 7, his method does not leverage that one bit. Other than avoiding obvious no-go exacta combo's, it's all about pure handicapping based on his own grading method. And with the boldness and confidence to disregard the WPS records altogether.
Along that line, at one point Dania had a once-a-week pre-perf webcast and in one episode Benny Bueno spoke of how he watches the game. He doesn't look at who won the game or necessarily the point, he is judging the players in terms of jai-alai fundamentals, like court positioning, for example, where of course he is a top expert. So between BB and Sensei, there are a couple of big endorsements for the power of observational handicapping.
So, if "The value of handicapping information is inversely proportional to its availability", then he is in a great spot with his own private methods.
A staggering implication of his winnings claim is that if he were to 'trifectify' his exacta picks, then he would be tapping into that familiar Spec 7 tri bias and could expect an even higher ROI. 70%?
Another implication is that he could use the WPS stats to predict what the betting public would make of the game, and then focus more heavily on situations where his position was at odds with that. Another possible percentage boost.
He did mention that he believed selective betting would be more powerful than betting every game, but he didn't do that because he was not striving to be a pro, and preferred to max the entertainment value. So that suggests an even higher possible return, now at an insane level nearing 100%!
Of course today we have all these tiny pools that wreck everything. A $3 exacta would squash the price, and don't forget that considering inflation, today's $3 bet is a joke. So we have no right to project his results into 2018. Particularly with the vastly lower % of what alq calls 'dumb money' in the pools. Still, IMO his book counts as a heavy endorsement of the position that you can beat the takeout.
I wonder if you found a number of points where you think Sensei is wrong. I sure did.
Aside from that, I'm impressed by all your horse racing analogies. Eg: Trip Handicapping - at MC early games, a winning trip through Bottom Threesville doesn't mean a whole lot.