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Hey jsolo

I wonder if you took note of the tiebreak / third set that was used in that Spain vs France championship partido. Played to 10 points instead of the usual 5 point version which I loathe beyond description.

Since you are a fan of all these various related sports, I wonder if you've given any thought to the implications of third set tiebreaks..

A quick simulation shows me the following outcomes for the better team:

Rating 5 pts 10 pts
53 57.4 60.5
55 62.1 67.1
60 73.5 81.4

Rating = % of points that the better team is likely to win.
5 pts = % of tiebreaks won
10 pts = % of tiebreaks won

So right away it might be surprising to see how often the weaker team would be expected to win that third set. In the most closely matched case, 53%, the inferior side comes thru almost 43% of the time at 5 pts.

But even in a heavily mismatched 60-40 case, the weaker team would win more that 1/4 of the time.

And just imagine what happens if the spread is tighter than 53-47. Total crap shoot.

I'm sure most of the fans are oblivious to this and conclude that the victory PROVES that the winner was the better team.

Now, when you think about it, these tiebreaks tend to occur in the mostly hotly contested matches which the fans probably enjoy the most. So concluding a one-set-all match with a junk tiebreak seems nuts. At least go with 10 pts or maybe use tennis-style. Por favor.


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