Re(3): Erik & Ladutxe 11-30-18 Tonight Posted on December 1, 2018 at 01:18:21 AM by Craig G
Bridge jumping ain't got nothing to do with it.
I see this more in the light of a theoretical "If a tree falls.." question.
Whether we see it or not, whether we choose to address it or not, the problem still exists.
What is a realistic probability for this partido?
Jaialaimike has strong opinions on Erik and also that the partido "is not worth betting a cent".
But how do we determine the betting part objectively beyond the opinion level?
A while ago when I was discussiong how much I hate the 5 point tiebreak used commonly in the Basque partidos, I wrote some code to analyze how faithfully that tiebreak produces a win for the better team. It's a simple matter to adapt that code to a 15 point contest.
Based on the final score of 15-8, Erik-Ladutxe are winning 65.2% of the points. That has them winning the partido at about a 95.5% rate. Which is just barely above breakeven, betting-wise.
However, IMO they eased up a little at the end, so maybe 15-7 is more realistic. In that case they would win very close to 98% of the time and yield a 3% profit. Combine that with a Straymar level of rebate, and you are off to the races.
And of course, their first partido at 15-5 (?) would be even better than that.
Bottom line is that our objective theory puts it at 3 or 4% profit.