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Re(5): Erik & Ladutxe 11-30-18 Tonight

Looks like I can count on you for an intriguing response.

Re bridge-jumper, I wonder if there are archived newspaper stories from real life?

That link was tough to finish. Nice patch in the middle with a Camus reference (no 'Stranger' to this topic) followed immediately by 'Joe vs the Volcano'. Can't beat that - just ask the Waponi Woo. But then the comes the buzzkill about Monique Snowden.

Ok, partido probability charts.

pt% 5-W 5-L 15-W 15-L
====================================
50 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
51 52.4 47.6 54.4 45.6
52 54.9 45.1 58.6 41.4
53 57.3 42.7 62.8 37.2
54 59.8 40.2 66.9 33.1
55 62.2 37.8 70.7 29.3
56 64.5 35.5 74.3 25.7
57 66.8 33.2 77.8 22.2
58 69.0 31.0 80.9 19.1
59 71.3 28.7 83.8 16.2
60 73.3 26.7 86.4 13.6
61 75.4 24.6 88.7 11.3
62 77.4 22.6 90.7 9.3
63 79.3 20.7 92.5 7.5
64 81.1 18.9 93.9 6.1
65 82.9 17.1 95.2 4.8
66 84.5 15.5 96.3 3.7
67 86.0 14.0 97.2 2.8
68 87.5 12.5 97.9 2.1
69 88.9 11.1 98.4 1.6
70 90.1 9.9 98.8 1.2
71 91.3 8.7 99.2 0.8
72 92.4 7.6 99.4 0.6
73 93.4 6.6 99.6 0.4
74 94.3 5.7 99.7 0.3
75 95.1 4.9 99.8 0.2
76 95.8 4.2 99.9 0.1
77 96.5 3.5 99.9 0.1
78 97.1 2.9 100 0.0
79 97.6 2.4 100 0.0
80 98.0 2.0 100 0.0


Those column headers denote point-winning %, W-L for 5-pt tiebreak, and W-L for 15-pt partido.

A quick takeaway from that might be that in a 15-pt partido, you can reach 98% prob if your pt% is about 68, but to achieve 98% in the tiebreak you have to be at 80%, which would be ultra-rare.

The crappiness (IMO) of the 5-pt tiebreak makes me wonder if there are betting opportunities wherein the underdogs are undervalued. Meaning that if a team or player that is overmatched can somehow split sets, the tiebreak gives them a much better chance to get lucky than the betting public would expect.

As for What does it tell you when a team wins 15-0, they will win 99.9% of the time? What about 15-1, 15-2, 15-3, etc. , I wouldn't completely trust a mindless formula. IMO, it is necessary to be empirical / pragmatic. You've got this outlier idea, the 'New York Times rating formula collapses runaway scores' idea, then regression to the mean, and so on. In my day-to-day reckonings I always use a 'floor' and 'ceiling' for ratings - even for Baller or Nate at the low end.

Even with a look-up table I devised to convert G:WPS records to campeonato points to point-win-percentages, I still only use a range from 20% to 80%. (Aritz?!)

Finally, I am not attracted to this kind of sure-thing bet at all, but I did want to support the partidos at least at a token $20 level and also wanted to try to not lose. (5-0 so far, but I snoozed on the $3.40 Zulaika gift.)

However, I would like to point out that if some here think that anything beyond 5% consistently is impossible, or that you can't win at all, then 3% doesn't look so negligible. Hypothetically, if there were hundreds of partidos going on, then a 1/9 bet would just seem like a routine transaction instead of a possible bridge-jumper event. Assuming that the hcap analysis justified the wager, of course.




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