Re(6): Erik & Ladutxe 11-30-18 Tonight Posted on December 4, 2018 at 11:04:43 PM by hudepohl
Thank you for posting the chart, Craig, it is very interesting. I can see what you mean about the 5 point tie-break not being near as good as the 15 point partido in producing a win for the team which is superior. Is that similar to the increasing sample size leading to a decreased margin of error? It might also be similar to that idea of long leads in coin tossing where if heads comes up first it is more likely to maintain the lead through the range of coin tosses. Probably the less tosses the more likely it is for heads to maintain the lead and win thus a weaker team may be able to hang on for victory. You see this in horse racing where an inferior front running type barely hangs for a win against a field of superior (classier) animals. I agree totally with throwing out the efforts which are "spectacular" or (on the other end of the scale) "horrible" especially as ability levels increase. I always remember especially when handicapping pro football that these players are all professionals and on "any given Sunday" will play up to the level expected of them as pros. Just ask the Minnesota Vikings back on September 23 when they got beat by the Buffalo Bills by 21 points when they were favored to win by 16 and a half. Laying the wood might seem the right call but enough weight will stop a freight train, so to speak (mixing aphorisms LOL). You shouldn't beat yourself up over missing betting on Zulaika-Amigorena, like I posted, they only went from 2-5 to 3-5 after the betting was closed and I thought even more money was going to come on them not Jairo-Leke.
Sorry if my link was doubly depressing but as my friend Arty likes to say "it all ends in death". Did you happen to notice that Red McDaniel died on 5/5/55. What time you wonder. Looked it up in another article, right around 5 PM. Coincidence? Here's one. I first read the article in the link about a month or so ago. I was looking for an article about Red McDaniel because I couldn't remember his name. My wife and I saw a race from Golden Gate Fields on television and I said "that's where that trainer was that jumped into the San Francisco Bay back in the fifties". So I googled it to find his name and came across that article. The events around Chilli Man happened in July of 2016, I missed hearing about all those tragic circumstances at that time. Anyway, I happened to take my wife to Belterra Park later in that year in October. We were sitting at an outside table on the east side of the track when my wife starts up a conversation with a woman sitting at an adjacent table. They end up talking about health issues (somehow, I'm busy studying the past performances). My wife has had a slew of problems in the last ten years including (but not limited to) a brain tumor, three strokes and congestive heart failure. The woman starts telling us how she has had a heart transplant and then tells us that she is a horse trainer named Katherine Ritvo. Alarm bells started ringing in the back of my brain and then she says that she trained Mucho Macho Man. My eyes probably about came out of my skull, I loved that horse, he was wicked good in Grade One races and made me some good coin. Anyway, she was up from Keeneland with a horse dropping in class (big time) come to Cincy to steal a paycheck and get claimed (bought). So Mrs Ritvo tells us that if her horse wins we can come into the winner's circle and get our picture taken with it and everyone after the race. Well the horse, W V Jetsetter, staged a good rally in the stretch to get up and win at the wire. So we had to take off from our table to get to the winner's circle about two hundred feet away and just made it in time to get our picture taken (my wife moves rather slow these days). Kathy Ritvo brought a copy of the photo to us at our table. She is an incredibly nice person to be doing that for some people she happened to meet less than three months after the events surrounding the Chilli Man. We saw her again in February of 2017 when came to Miami to go to the Dania and Miami frontons as well as Gulfstream Park. We were given the same winner's circle photo offer but alas, her horse, a first time starter, failed to win. My wife was tripping out over that whole article when I read it to her.
So you like ole Al Camus, too. Here's a song for you. Au revoir.