Is a Market Crash Imminent? Posted on 12/14/2018 at 15:07:55 by Bill Crawford, (14)
With the market going down and down over the past couple of weeks, I've been trying to google up some info about where the market is heading.
I came across the below-linked (lengthy) video by a self-styled "prominent economist" who predicts a market crash of 70% within the next few months.
I watched the video all the way through.
It turns out that the video is a pitch for a book by a Mr Bauman.
He makes the point over and over that the market suffered big setbacks in 2000 and 2008 after lengthy upswings, and that the market should have also taken a dive in 2014 for the same reason. (He added that he correctly predicted the market drops in 2000 and 2008).
He goes on to say that the reason the market didn't drop in 2014 was primarily because of massive stock buybacks by companies, so as to keep raising their stock prices.
What the author fails to mention is that although stock buybacks were, for all practical purposes, banned after the 1929 crash, they were re-authorized in 1982, and that substantial stock buybacks were actually taking place in both 2000 and 2008 (when the big stock market drops occurred), as well as in 2014, (when a big stock market drop didn't occur).
To me, this essentially negates his argument that a stock market drop was avoided in 2014 because substantial buybacks were occurring during that year. [(!)(?)].
He also stated that stock buybacks would essentially be done away with again in August of 2018, ultimately leading to a 70% stock market crash.
Apparently the re-doing away with stock buybacks never took place. (See below: https://mavenroundtable.io/theintellectualist/news/stock-buybacks-were-once-illegal-why-are-they-legal-now-sHh6HZjtyk2styG-qLgnQg/).
Although the stock market might be facing some tough times in the months ahead, it doesn't look like one should base his conclusions upon Mr. Bauman's predictions.