Re(4): Big show tix at Miami Twi - bet hudepohl had that? Posted on January 2, 2019 at 03:28:58 PM by Craig G
Betting 200 to show to win 10$ is insane one loss in 20 and you lose.
Under normal circumstances, yes, but here I disagree.
If you consider the system 'in toto', which includes wagering thru agencies with hefty rebates, then it is broken and can be exploited.
I already showed that Aritz is at about 90% itm in the best posts in 6-post games, and that is pre-handicapping. Given the reduced number of posts, and the mismatch in talent, getting to 95% is not of the question.
You say that 'you lose', but in your 'one loss' scenario you lose $10 per $4000 bet, which is only -.25%. Even the W&W low-roller rebate covers that.
So you could say that the broken* system actually allows for this type of bet to be legit. The monster prices that sometimes result might be subsidized by the rebate.
However, this is just theoretical, since we don't know if anyone is doing it that way.
But the point is that those bets are not categorically insane. And... since some people here argue that owing to the takeout, it is almost impossible to win at jai-alai, then logically, this method - if it worked - would be the opposite of insane.
* Broken --> if enough people did this to draw attention, then a repair would be to suspend rebates on show bets in 6-post games. Replies: