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Question of the Week Archive (10+ years)

Re(3): Ubilla 1st game singles...

I would like to get into deep analysis using a jai alai SIM tool. Any suggestions?!

Ok, that is not so easy.

I noticed a while back that there is a 99 cent jai-alai sim app available for Android phones.

I quipped that it was 'worth every penny', but actually I don't know, since I never tried it.

But it might be worth looking into.

What would really be great would be if Tiger had a contact for 'Lorenzo'. (of yesteryear) He created a 'Jai-Alai Supercomputer' which is better than a sim, in that it calculates the EXACT probabilities for each game. Including the supers.

Despite being an obviously very bright engineer type, he blundered big-time by thinking there would be a market for his product. So I think it was just quietly shelved. If you could buy a copy of that, it would be more accurate than any sim.

However, I have my own 'Kruncher' prog which does the same thing for Spec7 games. So I can tell you for certain that if you have a well-designed sim, and run it at about 1 million cycles, the top 20 tri list will be fairly consistent. And the exactas and Q's even more so.

Therefore, a sim like that it is good enough for any practical research.

You could argue that it is also necessary to have a lot of supporting 'infrastructure', for handling entries, changes, results, doing ratings calculations etc. But not totally true.

IMO, if you used your own judgement - high quality, let's assume, and comparable to 'Sensei' style - to provide sim inputs, you would still get big benefits from letting the sim calculate how those ratings interact. Seriously, even ratings at a chimp level (ooh-ooh, 3 good, 6 sucks) might be worthwhile. Especially if they didn't match the obfavs in the program pages.



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