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Re(3): here's a tough game to handicap

There's a fair chance you meant that in the ironic /sarcastic sense. No problem.

Jai-alai likes to present us with a lot of challenging puzzles. Straymar already indicated that this one falls under the category of, "While the cat's away..."

So what do we know about this game?

Obvious and basic factors include:

1. Post position
2. Class
3. Condition
4. Neighborhood

With Erik away, long term class goes to D & Z.
They have the best posts as well.

Those judgements are simple and beyond dispute.

4. Hood

You can use the Wayback Machine and still access the Dania archives (including by game #!) from yesteryear. You would find that historically the backs who have been assigned to go up against the elite fronts in g 10 have been eviscerated. Along those lines, my season wraparound stats show that Leke (in p5 that game) has managed about 61: 0-3-2. IOW a very tough job for him to try to hang with those guys. And he is not alone to have that kind of record.

Key thing is, post 5 can be considered as a 'sentry' post, which is often called upon to stop the 1, 2 or 3 post at possible game point. So it's no surprise then that Diego faced him at the end.

Favorable hood for Diego? Absolutely.

Finally, factor 3, current form. I gave my opinion, which, unlike the other rock solid considerations, turned out to be a little half-assed.

Yes, you can look in the 'game pages', see 10:0-0-3, and conclude that Diego is not at his best in singles. But to assume that the Fair Play system has been giving him a 'fair' distribution of post assignments is a serious blunder. If you take this sh...stuff seriously, you need to put in the effort to ensure that he hasn't been camping out in the boonies.

IMO, { 5, 6, 5, 5, 5, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5 } qualifies as just that. Finally, post 1.

So that's it... 1, 3 and somebody.

However, Arrieta could very well have won that critical point against Diego and faced Leke for game. You would need 7 / D & Z as insurance. But when I think about the amazing batch of wins Arrieta had before the break, I have to believe that form could return at any time. So I would feel like a dumbass if I didn't cover him running it with 1 & 3.

That is all.


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