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Question of the Week Archive (10+ years)

Re(5): here's a tough game to handicap

My name isn't Straymar, but here are my ratings for that game, using win ratios from one of my basic methods.

1 4.8
2 8.6
3 6.1
4 8.3
5 20.5
6 9.9
7 7.1
8 10.3

It just happened to work out that 173 (actual result) was numero uno in both the tri and trikey (key / xy) lists for that game.

I also look at sorted 'value' lists, which aren't truly value - based on quality of the players - but based on how much that number combo has improved over its base prob. Eg: if 173 normally hits at a 1 in 182 rate, but here looks like 1 in ~ 71, no wonder it was top of the value list. (however, that approach to value has to be tempered with the realization that often it is the worst unplayable combos that are the biggest gainers)

For the value trikey, it would have been 7/13 followed by 1/37, which I like a lot because, watching the game, there was a very great chance that Arrieta could have ran it from the 7. So the sim would have been LOL on that, and also it shows that the saver idea I mentioned wasn't just 20-20 hindsight.

What puts Barandika so far down for that game was probably having the better players, D & Z in such favorable posts, plus having Arrieta right ahead of him. Plus Tevin has also perked up his singles lately.

My instinct might have been to also cover 6/13, but according to "The Cold Equations", that is about 13th best.


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