Re(2): Comparing the greats Posted on March 3, 2019 at 04:15:05 PM by Craig G
"the ability to close at game point" which I think is the most important variable of all
I love it when obviously intelligent long-time followers present hcap ideas that are not part of the 'Standard Model', as exemplified in Skiena's 'Calculated Bets'.
I would define the 'SM' as basically 'ratings + sim + payoff considerations', with the assumption that once you work out the 'skill level' of the players, you are home free.
My point is that while you are calling it the most important variable, it's a fairly safe bet that NONE of the sim guys incorporate that explicitly in their models. Eg: I did a completion dissection and bug fix of the Skiena code, so I know for a fact it's not in there. Nor in any of my sims, or even the 'Jai-Alai Supercomputer'.
So probably flying under the radar of all the computer guys. Of course the leveling factor is that those kind of dominating players are already in the spotlight owing to their stunning win records. Meaning wager value = ??
Now, here is a little problem - Do you think that if you had figures such as: Key Guy wins 56% overall at non-PGP, but 62% at PGP, that the case would be clear?
IOW, if you could order up supporting data for your idea, what would you need?