Smell the Win / Top Players at Possible Game Point Posted on March 15, 2019 at 05:01:17 PM by Craig G
Let's assume that both of those ideas are correct. What would that imply?
Well, the top players kick it into an extra gear when the game is on the line.
And in both scenarios, that higher level is clearly with respect to the other points that were played in that specific game.
There is an amusing consequence to this. The top players are the ones most likely to reach 'possible runout point'. In those cases, their point-winning percentage had to be 100 going into PGP. That means that in the entire history of American Q-based jai-alai, despite playing at their absolute max at PGP, in runout cases ALL the top players won FEWER times - as a percentage - then in the points in the rest of the game. Where they were presumably playing at a lower level. No way around that.
Beyond runouts, how about games where they won second time up. Clearly, their pre-PGP figure had to be 75+%, owing to the nature of the scoring system.
Point being, that to statistically prove the validity of 'smell the win' and 'tougher at game point' would be just about impossible - even if you had all the results of every point ever played. The structure of the game almost guarantees that they won a lower % at PGP*.
Therefore, for those ideas presented by Tiger and alq to be proven correct, you would have to base it on judgement derived from observation. The stats won't help, unless I am missing something.
* Actually, in the most extreme cases, like mismatches between late and early at Magic City, or Miami last season, or Ladutxe in singles game 1, they ARE coming thru at ~80% on PGP. But that is due to the mismatch, and not so much an elevation based on 'smell the win'.