Re(4): Dania Games Schedule Change Posted on April 1, 2019 at 07:36:42 PM by Craig G
This line of thought led me to realize a previously overlooked shortcoming of the Skiena system.
He looks at a result from a game for a given post, eg: post 4 placed, and then infers that on average, for that case the team or player in question would have won x number of points and lost y number of points.
So a point is a point, regardless of the caliber of the particular opponents faced. Now in our current situation of Fair Play post assignments, it may be that things tend to even out well enough for that technique to work adequately.
But at the time he wrote his book, the frontons were all using handicapped post position assignments.
You could have Player A who hung out in the 5-6-7 posts and won 50% of his points mostly versus Bolivar and Cachin. (would have to be a superstar himself to do so)
And then Player B who is always in red, white, and blue, and maybe he also wins 50% of his points. But the rotation system will guarantee that he is mostly playing against his fellow 1-2-3 types who are one or two classes below the stars in the tough posts.
So the Skiena method will show them both winning 50% of their points. But we can see that it is almost certain that Player A would kill Player B in a direct head-to-head match-up. That means that in all of his point-winning projections of type A vs type B, he will be seriously overstating the likelihood of B prevailing.
His saving grace, and the reason he could get away with that error, is that the scoring system will mostly match type B with his fellow type B's, and the overall impact of the systemic error for 'A vs B' cases will be masked by the remaining elements of the system that DO work as intended. ( as is also the case for his simulator bugs)
Unfortunately, this is just theory and has no practical use. Unless the frontons happen to revert to handicapped post positions. Replies: