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Mutriku, 1971
Standing, L to R: Arriza, Altuna, Egurbi, Txurruka, Javier Egurbide, Roberto Egurbide
Kneeling, L to R: Beristain, Astigarraga, Andrés Egurbide

Re(1): Game 10

"gambler's nightmare" "overbet"

This may seem looney tunes, but if you compare an individual jai-alai performance to a running or bicycle race which always end with a finishing sprint, then it is just possible that the format of having game 10 as the final appearance in the perf for the fronts suited Erik to a T. The opportunity to focus and go out with a bang. No partner to deal with, just him.

He ran it out Friday and both games Saturday. Prices of $91, $104, and $90 may seem overbet, but my sim had those at > 30% overlays!

Now you could say, "Ratings plus sim, what about the rest of us?"

Well, if Erik (or any other hugely dominant player) is winning 1 out of 4, that means he does even better during his sizzling phases. So you could be right 1 out of 3, no problem, with basic observational handicapping. (but not if you lock onto posts 6 and 7, of course)

I have stated before that "A rising tide lifts all boats", which is basically true wrt tri probs. As the key guy (winner) goes up in probability, so do the associated tri numbers.

So if 315, 425, and 514 normally occur at 1 in 157, 1 in 182, and 1 in 136, then we are now looking at 1 in { 59, 68, 51 } respectively. Now factor in that Diego was the place guy in 2 out of 3 cases and the overlay conclusion - based on simple calculations and reasoning - seems very clear. No ratings formulas or simulations required.

But taking the top player at his best is the extreme case. Otherwise I agree that it can be a nightmare because you don't know which of the aces might get a break on receiving and then serve it out.


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