Re(4): A total bust....0/7 ITM Posted on April 6, 2019 at 12:49:06 PM by Craig G
When the game is over, I try to look at it really honestly and ask if there is any way could could have used my mindset to justify betting on the winner.
In this case, the answer seems to be emphatically NO, especially since Beitia-Israel in post 2 were sandwiched once again by top fronts Zulaika and Erik.
However, on further review, with a little reaching, I see that you could make a small case for them.
1 - Ibon is in a cooling phase after his big blast last week
2 - Statistically strong post 1 hasn't done jack lately
3 - post 2 is best in doubles and this team hasn't had 2 in many moons
4 - PRICE, you are almost sure to get that here
5 - the 'sentry posts', 4 and 5, who need to stop a double-points-gobbling low post from going all the way, are exceptionally weak
6 - team mentioned unfavorably in Chalk Talk - always a plus
Point 5 is probably the top consideration, and it turned out that in their 3rd-time-up win, they did get half their points from post 4.
But realistically, even though there was an opening for a nice score, I wouldn't make that play unless I felt like gambling.
However, if I did want to go for a price with them winning, then it is clear that 2/1367 are the top candidates. With a 26 root, only 261, 263, and 264 are reasonable plays. So it would have to be $2 on those with 50 cents on the uglies for protection.