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Re(4): Pick 3 Friday Night 4/12

with the same type of longshots they would be cashing for tens of thousands of dollars

It's tough to be objective about this. While I doubt that I would key any of those 3 legs on top in a tri package, I don't see them as ultra-longshots either.

In jai-alai, the real longshots are where you have the least desirable posts, 5-6-7, occupied by the weakest teams or individuals, and also then have better players in the more favorable posts.

In this case if I use some kind of formulaic point-winning percentage calculations, I get projected win ratios of { 1 in 8.6, 8.6, and 9.6 } which converted to probs and multiplied gives you about a 1 in 710 chance on that $1,165 payoff. However, if I focus more on 'this game' stats, it gets better, at 1 in 470.

My studies have shown that in doubles, it's pretty hard to consistently eliminate post 2. One factor in that finding might be that post 2 is in fact the best chance for losing teams, if they are ever going to get a win.

Anyway, an overlooked factor in that pick-3 outcome might be that in each case, the 'neighborhood' of the winner was somewhat favorable for him. So, you look at Ithurria in game 10, and ask, "Are any of Erik, Diego, Zulaika, or Barandika in posts 4 and 5?" That's a plus for post 3, beyond question.

In game 8, won by post 8, the target posts for moving forward are 1 and 2, and both of them have losing records. That's a small plus for 8 who at 44:4-10-1 at least has a history of being competitive.

Finally, I'm not gonna pick post 2 in the super with Beitia-Salegi with their horrible record, but post 1 isn't any better. And we ought to respect Salegi's closing win surge because I am seeing 22 wins in his last 85 games. So you could react to Salegi's great season close-out by automatically giving him a chance any time he has posts 1-2-3.

Bottom line, none of those picks would have been standouts, but they all had a few positive aspects.

As opposed to the 5-6-7 with worst teams cases, which are the true 20-1 or even 30-1 longshots.


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