Closing it out Posted on May 7, 2019 at 01:42:07 PM by Craig G
Just want to wrap this up with some final thoughts, as promised.
Could it be they have a great record out of the 8 hole? The program actually has the stats for this.
Right out of the gate and already DQ'd. Take a look at the programs for Dania, Miami, or Magic City. Or even this Bridgeport program I have here from 1984. They don't tell you how each player or team does from each post position. But even if they did, they would be glommed together, or co-mingled. 7-pt games, 9-pt games, singles and doubles.
Aside from that, you don't understand that you've got the cause and effect backwards. It's not the stats that make this pattern work - it's the pattern that is causing the stats to build up. Imagine that Perry was attending a fronton which, owing to many scratches, had gone with a 6 and 7 post format for the first few months of the season. Hence no stats for post 8. Do you see that Perry would still understand this dynamic with post 8 the minute they returned to 8-posts?
There is no nonsensical dissection needed.
IMO, this is one of the more profound threads on jai-alai hcap factors that you can find. Jim pointed out that in his opinion, putting one of the top teams in the higher posts was very poor. And we must admit that this handicapped post position structure was being used over and over at every fronton.
If the basic repeated pattern was 'lesser lights' in 1-2-3, intermediates in 4 + 8, and tough guys in 5-6-7, then clearly the weak spot will always tend to be the post that turns the corner plowing into 1-2-3. So combine that structure with the scoring quirk that post 8 only needs 4 quick ones, and also that 'tough guy' players normally confined to 5-6-7 would occasionally draw an 8, and that some of them might also be serve grabbing specialists, and that is a celestial alignment of 4 key elements. In pinball terminology, 'Special when lit'.
Now, here why I was impressed by Perry's comments.
certain players whom I always bet in the 8 hole
This touches on the idea of expert analyst vs 'ratings formula plus simulation' (RF+S)
Perry, thru his observation and reasoning, is able to distill the hundreds of complexities in this game down into an easy to ID pattern with just a few variables. Essentially, 'If X, then Y'. So when Tiger speaks of:
Hot or cold (how much emphasis on recent history, and how recent is 'recent'?)
Serve/receive ability (overall and vis-ŕ-vis current point opponent)
Style (e.g. strengths/weaknesses) vs. this point's opponent(s)
(could put in a few more)
It should be obvious that ratings must be recomputed with each point.
Perry's response might well be, "Hey Tiger, what part of 'If X...' do you not understand?" IOW, we have 2 distinctly different ways of looking at this great game, and the RF+S method is NOT designed to ferret out underlying patterns. If we find cases with our 8 where posts 5 and 6 are statistically dynamite, the RF+S guys will almost surely be lemming'd in their direction. Perry, OTOH, might be LHAO, with a 'Bring it on!" attitude.
To bring this into clearer focus, let's imagine that a 5-6-7 guy has had nothing but 5-6-7 for the last 4 perfs. Getting nowhere. Finally gets an 8 with one of his best partners. For those who like this angle, those are plus factors. (His losing streak ends HERE). But RF+S regards his recent 'slump' as a serious negative and passes over him.
they just seemed to up their game when they knew they only needed to run four points to win
This is KEY. Tiger has asked the "Smell the win" question more than once, while alq brought up the topic of great players as 'closers', who were ferocious at game point. 'Sensei' also speaks about Bridgeport's final game as 'bringing out the best' or words to that effect. So we have 4 cases where jai-alai experts are speaking about jai-alai players having minds that can assess the situation and access a higher gear on demand. That is diametrically opposed to RF+S which doesn't know anything about surges, let-ups, or variable intensity.
The implication here is that if Perry (or anyone) can see that a particular post 8 is Beascoechea's best spot, then so can Beascoechea. Implying that the players can be situationally aware of their daily schedule and react accordingly. The extent to which that might be real is the extent to which a mechanical (blind) system will underperform.
Finally, on the subject of patterns vs RF+S, is that post 8 trick from yesteryear the only one?
I wonder how the posts just before a serve grabber extraordinaire have done in terms of placing? Like Inclan in post 6, would you do well with 15 and 25 exactas? I wonder how many low/high exactas of that pattern Arregui wiped out in his career.
How about the amazing mismatch of putting Laduxte in Dania game 1?
If you would be happy with a record of "---SS SS--- ----- P--SS SS" (22: 0-1-8) from post 3 when Ladutxe was in post 4, the go ahead and wheel the 3 in Ex and Q. It might be due.
Once again, we have a pattern based on observation and reasoning as opposed to RF+S. Posts 3-4-5-6-7 when immediately preceding Ladutxe were 68:4-3-13.