Tiger's Jai-Alai Chalk Talk
Discussion forum for Jai-Alai Heaven
Foro de la discusión para el Cielo de Cesta Punta

hits since 8/12/03

Chalk Talk Registration   Participación en Chalk Talk
Useful Links   Hall of Fame   Magic City scratches
Calder Scratches   Question of the Week Archive (10+ years)
Re(4): MCJA

In your opening post, you wrote but when the gap is so big between earlies and lates...

That is a good observation because it is critical to have an accurate reading for that gap.

However, I think that the comparative uniformity of talent within game groups over the years has fostered some mental laziness in fans where they obviously get away with looking at jai-alai as a 'numbers game'. So they think that number 432 should always pay about x amount of $$, 615 should pay y, and so on*.

Then when someone like Goiko of Aritz or The Warrior comes along and wins at a phenomenal rate, their numbers model fails, and there are a lot of complaints. But the truth is that usually the increased win freq of the dominant player balances thing out.

Here is a quick look at the Carballo prices from yesterday matinee in his first 3 singles games along with some probabilities that are auto-generated. (No human judgement)

(Format = type of bet, projected hit ratio, payout)

Game 1 635
Ex 1 in 3 - $28
Tri 1 in 28 - $118

Game 2 862
Ex 1 in 22 - $207
Tri 1 in 99 - $342

Game 3 327
Ex 1 in 2 - $14.40
Tri 1 in 8 - $73

Looking at the exacta prices, you can see that it is almost 400% profit. The trifectas are almost 100% profit.

Those are the 'crippled payouts' that you hate. I noticed one YT viewer refer to a low Q price with Carballo - Bueno as 'free money', so obviously they had a different attitude.

Bear in mind that the first and third games had Bueno taking second, so everyone in the building would have like those combos.

* Note: even in the Skiena book he claimed to see no correlation between ob faves and tri prices (IMO, he didn't try hard enough)

There have been no replies.

You must register before you can post on this board. You can register here.

Post a reply:
Link Name:
Link URL:
Image URL:

Do you want to post on Chalk Talk?
In order to post your own messages on Chalk Talk, you must first register as a member.
USE THIS LINK Chalk Talk Registration USE THIS LINK to register.
Do NOT use the link above the posting box that says 'You must register ... register here'. It will not work.
Please report problems/questions directly to the Den E-mail: rsbassociates at mindspring dot com
Tiger's Jai-Alai Chalk Talk logos, format and graphics copyright © 2003-2019 by RSB Associates
Create Your Own Free Message Board or Free Forum!
Hosted By Boards2Go Copyright © 2000-2018  Wedding thank you wording