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Re(4): MCJA

In your opening post, you wrote but when the gap is so big between earlies and lates...

That is a good observation because it is critical to have an accurate reading for that gap.

However, I think that the comparative uniformity of talent within game groups over the years has fostered some mental laziness in fans where they obviously get away with looking at jai-alai as a 'numbers game'. So they think that number 432 should always pay about x amount of $$, 615 should pay y, and so on*.

Then when someone like Goiko of Aritz or The Warrior comes along and wins at a phenomenal rate, their numbers model fails, and there are a lot of complaints. But the truth is that usually the increased win freq of the dominant player balances thing out.

Here is a quick look at the Carballo prices from yesterday matinee in his first 3 singles games along with some probabilities that are auto-generated. (No human judgement)

(Format = type of bet, projected hit ratio, payout)


Game 1 635
Ex 1 in 3 - $28
Tri 1 in 28 - $118

Game 2 862
Ex 1 in 22 - $207
Tri 1 in 99 - $342

Game 3 327
Ex 1 in 2 - $14.40
Tri 1 in 8 - $73

Looking at the exacta prices, you can see that it is almost 400% profit. The trifectas are almost 100% profit.

Those are the 'crippled payouts' that you hate. I noticed one YT viewer refer to a low Q price with Carballo - Bueno as 'free money', so obviously they had a different attitude.

Bear in mind that the first and third games had Bueno taking second, so everyone in the building would have like those combos.


* Note: even in the Skiena book he claimed to see no correlation between ob faves and tri prices (IMO, he didn't try hard enough)

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