2 out of 3 ain't bad? Posted on August 11, 2019 at 10:43:27 AM by Craig G
When you are looking at the 1.05 per dollar minus pool return, then the Meat Loaf standard does not apply - in fact it's deadly.
But I believe this guy was even worse at 2 for 4, which probably cost him about $850.
In view of Douglas's overall .703 record, that seems like tough luck.
However, if the goal is to exploit a weakness of the Magic City promo, he should have used a little finesse.
For openers, when it comes to holding on to your promo money, hudepohl has pointed out that some betting sites protect themselves from people using "sure thing to show" by either prohibiting show bets from bonus considerations or employing other countermeasures. Eg, our favorite, Watch & Wager, says, Wagers must return AT MINIMUM even money odds ($4.00 Payout on a $2 Wager) to count towards the $300 wagering requirement. All losing wagers are eligible.
Magic City, OTOH, with maybe a typical $5 show pool, probably didn't anticipate this move.
Now for the finesse part.
We know that at $1.05, you need to hit 20 out of 21 to break even. Additionally 19 / 21 --> 5% loss, 18 --> 10%, and so on. Bottom line, FWIW, is that you can lose 4 out of 21 and still be doing better than a 25% takeout.
With that in mind, IMO a better strategy would be to recognize that owing to the dynamics of the Magic City court, and the skill set of his opponents, a powerful player like Douglas will get extra advantage when receiving. So what this guy should have done is isolated cases where Douglas had post 2 or 3, and post 1 and 2 were NOT Kubala or Carballo. IOW, tilt the show odds in his favor as much as possible.
I believe that could lead to 19 or 20 hits out of 21 plays.
(It goes without saying that doubles games do not qualify, since that dilutes his advantage.)