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Question of the Week Archive (10+ years)
Re(3): Exacta Tote Board

Owing to the huge warping effect of the spectacular scoring system, the exacta runners for jai-alai (unlike other parimutuels) can be deduced easily by looking at a couple of seriously unbalanced exacta pairs.

I chose to test 46 and 58, which have base probs of:

# ratio
==========
64 53
46 172
85 49
58 178


Using today's Dania mat for the test, we get:

game 64 46 85 58
====================================
1 41 61 15 28
2 29 43 23 64
3 39 56 39 56
4 54 82 36 326
5 34 44 17 39
6 37 42 33 147
7 28 22 55 388
8 90 120 60 120
9 90 90 72 121
10 54 81 15 29
11 102 68 51 203
12 66 265 53 265
===================================
average 55 81 39 149
median 48 65 38 121


Clearly, 58 is Home of the Whopper, and the runner alignments would be obvious.

The one reversal was in the 46 in game 7 with Erik-Ladutxe in post 4. I expected that a heavy fave in post 4 or 5 might break the pattern owing to wheeling tendencies, so no surprise there.

Not that this matters or anything.




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