The intended answer is... Posted on June 16, 2020 at 02:26:14 PM by Craig G
Looks like a not-so-great puzzle question, since there might be a number of possible answers.
What I was getting at was the realization that it is only post 1 or 2 which can burrow into the lineup - as far as they want - and be assured that ALL of low-numbered posts preceding it will have zero points, and therefore each will need to win 4 times for a victory.
That comes in handy when you are hoping for the game to go around again, and unless there is a high post run-out, the chances of returning are excellent.
As far as the run-outs go, post 6 and 7 need to win 5 points, so the main danger is 8. So maybe a judgement call on cases where the 8 is unlikely to run would boost the win %. Or have some kind of insurance bet on an 8/ 1 or 2 outcome when you fear the 8.
Finally, when the key stops at 4 points, of all the low numbers, it is only the opposite starting post has a chance to win before the key returns. So that might be an insurance case as well.