Re(2): Here are the numbers for each case Posted on June 18, 2020 at 11:49:26 AM by Craig G
I completely agree that there is lot more to jai-alai than just what you would find from a formulaic and mechanistic approach.
EG, it might even be possible that players, unlike coin flips or simulations, are aware of whether they got blanked or not last perf, or where their best shot is today, or even where they have almost no chance at all. Which might impact their attitude. Wouldn't that be amazing?
Anyhow, for me the most fun part of jai-alai theory is 'implications'. If you believe a certain pattern exists, what does that imply?
Therefore, if I believed as you and Jim that my strong / hot key player or team had an above random tendency to stop at 3, I would immediately want to know the impact on trifecta probs.
Bur since neither of you nor anyone else mentioned that, I assume you already have that down or are simply not interested. So Paul Harvey be damned, I will let that part slide.