Re(1): Expectation For 2024 Election Posted on October 18, 2023 at 09:21:13 PM by A political pollster.
Cold, I sympathize with you for having a wounded ego, but your views remain sophomoric and will for another ten years. You're learning, but not enough yet to draw legit conclusions.
Seriously, my friend. Keep listening and learning. ASK IF, but don't stick your name yet on your opinions. Trust your gut, not the numbers. If it doens't make sense, it probably ISN'T!
I got 30 years on ya and I still can't say what you said yet with any element of confidence. I learned not to do that with BUSH GORE and even before, and I thought I knew shit at that age.
IF the real seasoned pundits still hold their breaths about the future, maybe you should too for another decade.
Just sayin, lad. Kudos tho for payin attention...it's how we learn but you're not quite out of the oven yet. I was older than you but smart enough to hold my opinions because I had learned not to be too confident abt my computations. Don't bet on your HOPES, or even your assumptions!
Sure enough, I would have been publicly wrong and was so glad I kept my mouth shut--stubbornly refused to air my statistics that made no sense! I told my boss I didn't trust my polling data; he was unhappy I would't stick my neck out, but luckily I didn't embarrass myself! My credibility and my TV stations' credibility was on the line.
That was abt 1980 or 84 or so, and yes, my sampling was HUGE and before the advent of smartphones which destroyed land line phone sampling. Honestly, everybody who DID stick their necks out got it wrong.
Since then I've learned to pay no attention to polling and I was pretty well-trained in how to sample voters.
Pollsters learned it even more when Trump got elected, surprising even HIM!
My advice is don't be in the crystal ball business even tho everyone wants you to be. America had no CLue Trump would win, then lose, and we have no clue if he'll even be out of prison a year from now.
Just buy more popcorn and enjoy the show! RadiomanKC sed it. Replies: