Re(1): Player scoring/rating/weighting: Is 5-3-1 right for Campeonato points? Posted on February 23, 2024 at 12:55:49 PM by Craig G
My thoughts are that in science, aka "The search for truth and knowledge", the worth of any idea is in its predictive value.
With that in mind, you could rate all players and teams strictly on finishing 3rd, and then in any particular game calculate the standard deviation of the ratings set, and use that to (crazily) predict point-winning percentages, and find out how it works.
Alternatively, you could bypass the simulations and SD calculations and just simplify it down to post 1 vs 2 match-ups and evaluate the corresponding WPS outcomes. I don't see how that could fail to have meaning.
Then try out every combo of WPS valuation scheme and see what prevails.
As an aside, we humans are hopelessly attracted to simple, clean numbers, eg a million dollars, 100 yards rushing, etc, but objectively reality likes numbers such as e, pi, phi, the speed of light, etc. Therefore, the chances that the true optimal values of WPS are a clean 5-3-1 are just about zero. Replies:
