Re(6): handicaps IP: 188.8.131.52 Posted on March 23, 2011 at 07:17:26 PM by james
Looking at things a lot closer, and playing with some statistical formulae that allow for ‘smoothing’, the handicapping systems proposed will all deliver the occasional anomaly. However the original system proposed by Mike last week is the best. Plus it’s simple and straightforward.
A+5 to -5 system still unfairly favours SPW, and does not give enough of an advantage to Calluna. Just look at the facts! SPW have beaten most teams at least once by double figures.
The league table shows the results over 22 fixtures, and all 1,408 questions asked. In general the originally proposed handicap system will be pretty fair to most teams. Teams can’t really complain about being victims of their own success throughout the season. And I, for one wouldn't begrudge Calluna a more generous lead than +3 if Ethel played them in the cup.
On reflection, any system that took individual results between 2 teams into consideration might be regarded as being overly subject to possible bias; the undue influence of weakened teams, walkovers or (am I allowed to suggest that such things happen…) the spurious results of quizzes that might have been won and lost on the initial toss of the coin etc.
There may be a few handicaps between individual teams which on the face of it seem ‘unfair’; SPW vs CMR at +11 wouldn’t reflect SPWs relative underperformance in those ties. Conversely, the Pigs who lost to SPW by 18 points and 16 points, might find their mere 7 point head start overgenerous to SPW. On the other hand, statistics (and reality) would suggest that CMR, if they were to play SPW again are due ‘one hell of a beating’, whereas the Pigs would regard themselves as being unfortunate to lose so heavily for a third time.
Stick with it Mike! Replies:
Re(7): handicaps - By A statistician scratches his headMarch 23, 2011 at 08:13:08 PM