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Question of the Week Archive (10+ years)

Answers are...

Biggest losers when post 2 wins the first point.

Q ---- 18
Ex --- 18
Tri -- ???

Here are the the impacts for the 18X and 81X series

182 1.136
183 0.173
184 0.200
185 0.240
186 0.189
187 0.375

812 0.594
813 0.672
814 0.482
815 0.293
816 0.147
817 0.098

The meaning of those figures is 'as a percentage of the normal rate'. Eg: 184 comes in 20% as often as usual.

So, yes the 18X series took the hit.

But what about Hatian Gary and the 178?

178 0.073

Whoa... he was on to something - it's worse than all the direct 1 and 8 combos. But even so, there are still 5 worse tri's ahead of it.

Here are the biggest losers and gainers by category.

Q Impacts
---------
18 0.25
17 0.48
16 0.62
13 0.66
...
23 1.34
26 1.38
27 1.52
28 1.75

Ex Impacts
----------
18 0.24
81 0.27
71 0.40
61 0.43
17 0.54
...
27 1.46
62 1.57
72 1.60
82 1.73
28 1.76

Tri Impacts
-----------
781 0.033
618 0.044
718 0.045
481 0.069
381 0.072
178 0.073
...
278 1.927
382 1.928
482 1.931
728 1.955
628 1.956
782 1.967

You can see that the impacts are mirrored for sure, in their orders, but not in their magnitudes. Losing a key point hurts a probability big time, but not losing boosts it more moderately.

So there you go - just become an expert at ID'ing selected games where you have an 'in' on the first point, and tilt the odds in your favor.

(Full lists available, if desired)




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