Love Looking At The Facts Posted on December 30, 2023 at 10:13:31 AM by alq
I am happy to see Mo Crank, Craig G and Straymar JA all contribute to analytical stuff
since I have a lot of respect for all 3 of them.
My initial post was because I thought I was seeing better tri prices this year than normal and I was hoping
that it would continue. I was hoping that a combination of larger pools and new players were both contributing
to these larger prices even though I realized that 220 games is not a credible sample. I was hoping that Mo
Crank could use median prices to minimize the effect of outliers. I also was assuming that prices could be adjusted
to the actual pool size.
While it may be easier to handicap players in a singles game than a doubles game,that doesn't necessarily
transfer to lower prices.Better players are not necessarily better players in both singles and doubles. Also,
there are more "lucky " shot winners in singles than doubles because 1 player has to cover the entire court.
There are other reasons as well.
It is also difficult to make conclusions about prices in 7 vs. 9 point games.Certainly, it is easier for tougher numbers
to occur in a 9 point game.However, bettors can adjust for this and therefore, affect prices.
Changes in median tri prices from one year to the next (or from one fronton to another fronton) are a function
of the roster of players,the pool sizes , the knowledge of the bettors,and the credibilty of the sample size, all
other things being equal (e.g. takeout,# of 7 vs. 9 point games,etc.).
One thing that seems true so far from the data is that tri prices overall are higher this season
compared to last season at Dania. My question is why? Replies:
