The three stages of Jai-5 jackpots Posted on June 11, 2023 at 10:08:21 AM by Tiger
A few days ago, on the MC live chat, I kidded about a continued jackpot stalemate until closing day (June 27), leading to a huge forceout pool.
It probably won't happen, but you could theoretically get to the point where the daily pool was so high, the chance of just a single winner was greatly reduced.
I see three stages in the life of the Jai-5 jackpot:
Early - Carryover is small, $2,000 guarantee not enough to get charged up. Daily pool stays small, and chances are no one gets 5 winners.
Middle (what we're most used to) - Jackpot grows over $2,000, folks start to get interested. System bettors sharpen their pencils. Fair chance of a single winner any time.
Late (we've not been there yet) - Daily pool is so large that it's more likely that there's more than one bettor with 5 winners, hence another carryover. More system bettors appear. Statistics and game theory now as important as picking winners. Imagine a pool of $100,000 - the chance of a single winner would be extremely remote.
Interesting, but I don't see how we could get to the late stage, given jai-alai's limited exposure.
NOTE: The key factor here is the POOL SIZE, not the jackpot size. Replies:
