Re(3): Trend In Tri Prices This Season At Dania Posted on January 17, 2024 at 02:49:46 PM by Craig G
until I see some clear patterns...
I like your thinking.
I have a big chess background, and chess is all about patterns.
Each opening that you may or may not have heard about, eg, the French Defense, Sicilian, Dutch, Ruy Lopez, Giouco Piano, Four Knights, Petrov, Nimzo, King's Gambit, Queen's Gambit, Catalan, etc, etc, all represent recurrent patterns or structures, and each one has its own set of ideas for dealing with it. And that's just the openings.
Naturally I am inclined to look at jai-alai the same way. Patterns.
Of course I also have the somewhat obvious, conventional, stats-based, ratings plus simulation approach at a very high level. But at the same time, I believe observation > stats. Much greater.
As an example of a pattern, are there sometimes games with one uniquely outclassed player? That would be your point donor. If in post 8, wanna guess which quin gains most in prob? Why, it's the two posts preceding it, which gives you a nice bump for the 67 Q. But we know that 67 is usually overbet in Q, Ex, and Tri, so not exactly a gold nugget. But there is a pattern there for sure.
we are still in never never land..
Here is a 20-20 hindsight pattern (LOL) that could have been imagined before Day 1 of the current season.
Two classes of players. Those who went thru it all last season, and came back for another try. These are the Returners ("R"). And then there are the "N" players, the Noobs. I found it interesting that Big Dave Lemmon, while announcing, briefly described all the turmoil the new guys have to get thru. Culture shock, new room-mates, quin games vs matches or partidos, playing day after day, and more. Almost identical to what Jose M Goitia said in his book, "Jai-Alai, the Other Side of the Screen".
Now let's imagine 4 possible doubles pairings, R-R, R-N, N-R, N-N. Wanna go all in on the N-N's in post 5-6-7? Try 4 wins out of 97 at bats.
Anyhow, that is just 2 out of many, many possibilities. But I also agree with your idea that a player who has had a bad patch - especially owing to random draw of posts and partners - and is now pressing for a win, would benefit from being paired with his bestie.
