Twain was on the right twack Posted on February 1, 2024 at 03:45:34 PM by Craig G
Your post inspired me to revisit some of his quotes.
How about, "Good breeding consists in concealing how much we think of ourselves and how little we think of the other person."
LOL. Could he have been a time-travelling Chalkie, by any chance?
And, "Wit is the sudden marriage of ideas which, before their union, were not perceived to have any relation."
Love that one, because that's one of my favorite things.
Here's an example.
A couple weeks ago there was a discussion comparing the Dania stats from this season to the last. At the same approx time, I was thinking about the war in Ukraine and the upcoming delivery of more tanks to assist them. Knowing how many Russian tanks had been easily destroyed, I wondered how we know that the same thing won't happen to the tanks employed by Ukraine.
That question led me to look up an article on the Abrams M1, where it was stated that it would no longer be effective by 2040. One of the main reasons was the increasing transparency of the battlefield. Wow! That concept immediately struck me as a match made in heaven for jai-alai.
For openers, we can think back to the system players of yesteryear who had early knowledge of the good and bad tri combos produced by Spec 7 scoring. Huge advantage to them. But over the years, more PC's, spreadsheets, personal databases, tutorials on how to use them, and discussion forums, and so on. Even fan websites with free stats. If that isn't increasing transparency, what is?
Well, that's long-term, but what about short? As in, within a given season.
First we have the comment from tobyonekanoby, where he is waiting until he sees more patterns.
But then if we look at 'Some Facts', we see comparisons of the first 88 singles games of this season to all the singles games of the prior one. And 84 doubles Spec 7 this season to 200 from last. Ditto for the supers. Since we all know that you are supposed to be comparing kiwis to kiwis - in this case, the first n this season to the first n last - then that means there is an implied assumption being made that the extra weeks of data don't matter.
But how do we know that that the week-to-week tri figs are isotropic? (whatever that means)
In truth we know that they aren't. The very first week we have lots of previously unknown players and program pages with wall-to-wall zeros for stats. This first week has the greatest potential for being a hellzapoppin free-for-all. And each succeeding week will contribute to more knowledge of the players and better stats. IOW, our increasing transparency. That should lead to lower prices, fewer outliers, and regression to the mean effects for the ongoing average prices.
At any rate I like Twain's thinking and should probably try to go beyond the force-fed Tom Sawyer and Huck Finn from high school days.
