Re(1): Betting Trifectas Under Both Scenarios Posted on May 13, 2024 at 12:31:43 PM by Craig G
Well thought out reply.
TBH, I'm not sure what i would prefer, especially since we have to think about it bimodally, ie, case 1 = today's barely playable low pools, and case 2 = $5,000 or greater pools from the wonder years.
You have a good point re the number of permutations. With random post assignment, we have over 40k ways to arrange 8 players or teams. But if we insist that the strongest 3 are always in 5-6-7, and the weakest 2 are always in 1-2, then that number gets whacked. No question.
But speaking as someone who bet often in the Bridgeport / Milford era, I do not agree that plm makes every game similar because that 'equalizing' ideal is not truly attainable, and in actual reality there were plenty of game-to-game mismatches to exploit.
So I think that your 6 hcap points apply to both cases.
However, what is most important, IMO, is to consider which format is best for the health of the game, which means appealing to the overall fan base, and not to the top experts.
An example of that is that in WPB, one of the local news channels would announce the 'high tri' payoff during the sports segment. This addresses the important idea that part of jai-alai's general appeal was the promise of big payoffs. It would be hard to argue that random posts have not reduced the frequency of whopper Q, Ex and Tri payoffs. And even if I were wrong on that, they have certainly increased the number of unappealing dirt ones.
If we look at lotteries and casino games, and conclude that the lure of high payoffs when you win is an essential part of their business model, then it follows that the more you squelch the excitement of big hits, (even if it's the guy next to you) the more you reduce the probability of a patron returning.
So while you are looking at the hcap considerations, there is also the Machiavelli 101 angle. We can say that successful gambling enterprises are taking advantage of both 1 - innumeracy, an inability to appreciate just how unlikely you are to hit, and 2 - a tendency to forget about steady losses and instead fondly remember the big wins.
If that is true, then business-wise why would you want to make any change (random posts) to go against it?
