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Re(1): Victor
Posted on February 5, 2025 at 02:51:24 PM by Craig G

Well, if you remember a study I provided some time ago re the impact of winning or losing the first point, what then would you expect from a player in post 1 in doubles who has serving issues?

Let's just say that for such a player, post 1 is a clear theoretical disadvantage compared to 2 or 3, and the same bias applies to cases where you have elite serve stealers who themselves are not the greatest servers.

Other things being equal, in our simplified "all player strengths equal" model, post 1 winning the first point leads to a 1 in 4.2 win chance vs 1 in 10.2 when losing it. Big dif.

Of course, you have to realize that the study is based on 100% win / lose on that first point, but the real world case is only going to be a strong bias.

This happens to be a potentially valuable edge for observational hcap, particularly early on in the meet before stats can provide any kind of clue to those computer guys.

Aside from that, Victor was amazing as a sub in that partido and I hope he is in his best form for the next.

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