Re(2): 7865 super Posted on February 22, 2025 at 11:44:39 AM by Craig G
all other things being equal
Which they most definitely are not.
Believe it or not, this particular game is like a throwback to the handicapped posts era.
Just in terms of win ratios, we have:
1 39
2 9
3 9.3
4 6.5
5 3.1
6 4.2
7 3.2
8 8
Even if post 4 -> 8 were average, when you have the 3 weakest teams in 1-2-3, that more than doubles the chances of a 78 exacta. But when 7 is a monster team, then the 78 probs get better and better.
As I said, this is a throwback game, where yes, the 4 is good, but it has to plow right into the strongest teams. Post 5 is in a similar situation. Meanwhile the skids have been greased nicely for the 7 and 8.
And with a 9-point game, there is more time for this pattern to materialize.
Whatever our true 7865 prob for this game might be, it is far better than the generic 1 in 18,349 case. Replies:
Tiger's Jai-Alai Chalk Talk
