My analysis Posted on May 17, 2025 at 05:07:15 PM by Tiger
Most noteworthy feature of the Preakness is the very short run to the first turn. This can have a profound effect on strategy, re: a horse's most comfortable pace/position.
Fast openers 1-Goal Oriented and 3-American Promise will likely do just that, with 8-Clever Again probably able to sneak in.
2-Journalism, 6-River Thames and 5-Play Billy should fall in comfortably after that (with minimal effort).
Trailing would be 7-Sandman, 4-Heart of Honor and 9-Gosger (all comfortable at this point).
How it unfolds after that is where the fun begins.
Keep in mind: Only 4 horses have run this distance before: Journalism, American Promise, Heart of Honor and Sandman.
1-Goal Oriented: Though moving up in class, he had a nice last race (104) on Derby Day, plus a nice 4f work last Sunday. Like.
2-Journalism: Obvious class ($500,000 per start in 2025), but might not be all there after a tough Derby finish (and no works).
3-American Promise-Tough run in Derby. Will get used up in first quarter. Pass.
4-Heart of Honor: Watched him in UAE Derby. Nice finish-could hve won, but pinched. Like.
5-Pay Billy: Nice longshot at 20-1. Like.
6-River Thames: Steady high 90's Beyers. Seems comfortable. Like.
7-Sandman: Lots left in the tank after Derby. Only Sustain in the race. Maybe.
8-Clever Again: Early speed, but I think he'll blow it getting to first turn. Big class jump. Pass.
9-Gosger: Another up in class, but won the Lexington. Possible for exotics. Pass.
And so:
2-4-6-7 Exacta Box
1-2-5-6-7 Superfecta box
5 Win
4-5 Exacta Box
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