Re(2): Another implication

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Happy Birthday, Jeff "Laca" Conway & peugeot Re(2): Another implication
Posted on July 7, 2025 at 03:56:36 PM by Craig G

Unlike horses and dogs, The three top rated ... don't necessarily target a 1-2-3 finish.

I can't agree with that. Once, for a challenge, I analyzed historical data from Yonkers, and that bias against outside posts is huge.

Also, for fun, I wondered about doggies, and look at this exacta count, for the main track distance at a major track:

X_ID COUNT
12 7552
21 7252
31 5762
23 5669
18 5167
32 5157
13 5149
81 4975
41 4968
14 4865
28 4744
24 4425
17 4345
34 4267
38 4242
82 4115
15 4091
61 4015
51 3907
71 3907
42 3870
16 3866
26 3813
25 3792
27 3755
83 3542
35 3505
48 3472
43 3421
68 3371
36 3368
45 3241
87 3217
72 3208
78 3154
37 3137
62 3118
52 3079
84 2925
86 2800
58 2758
53 2748
47 2724
54 2690
63 2672
46 2618
57 2601
76 2590
73 2542
85 2538
56 2531
74 2494
65 2480
64 2474
67 2327
75 2279

Burning question = If your thinking is a dismissive "Unlike horses and dogs...", what then can we expect from the betting public, in terms of marketplace efficiency?

If we consider the top 6 exactas by freq, and also the bottom 6, which group would you guess lost 17.4%, and which lost 32.7%?

So, IMO:
3 top horses at Yonkers in 6-7-8
3 top dogs on main track in 4-5-6 or 5-6-7
equals box at your peril.

Bottom line is that jai-alai number combo bias is easy to compute, but similar biases can exist elsewhere, and if we had god-level knowledge and simulations, we could compute them as well.

Replies:

Re(3): Another implication - By Tiger July 7, 2025 at 04:55:46 PM

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