Re(3): Ok then%01 a Chalkie Challenge.

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Chalk Talk Terms of Service Re(3): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge.
Posted on January 4, 2026 at 11:23:55 PM by Kullster10

Chalkie Challenge accepted. I worked with my son who is a tutor at Mathnasium on this one. Since the payout is 5% or $1.05 on a $1.00 bet, you have to figure out what are the break even odds per point extrapolated out to a max of 29 possibilities (15-14) where the underdog is successful 15 times. We found a binomial probability calculator online and started plugging numbers in. What we found was that if each point was a split of .648% win rate for the favorite and a .352% win rate for the underdog, over the course of a 15 point partido, the underdog would be the first to 15 points exactly 5% of the time (same as the payout). That is our baseline. In my opinion, Johan/Gorka would win 75% of every point against Txanika/Kanpandegi. When we plugged those %�s into the calculator, it came up with only a .0018% chance that the underdog would win the partido. Yes less than 2 tenths of 1%. Based on the locked in expected return of 5% and with a 99.9% win probability based on my handicapping, YES it would be a smart wager. Basically if you thought they were more than 65/35 better then it is positive EV and would be a winning wager over the course of time.

I agree the only drawback would be injury. The subs were Javier/Urrutxua.

Replies:

Now adding empirical corroboration - By Craig G January 7, 2026 at 11:52:05 AM
Re(4): Easiest bet in jai alai history - By Jeff "Laca" Conway January 5, 2026 at 04:53:55 PM
- Re(5): Easiest bet in jai alai history - By Craig G January 7, 2026 at 12:08:06 PM
  - Re(6): Watch and Wager froze my account too - By Jeff "Laca" Conway January 7, 2026 at 05:54:13 PM
- Terri from Watch and Wager - By JAFan January 5, 2026 at 10:43:00 PM
  - Re(1): Terri from Watch and Wager - By Tiger January 6, 2026 at 09:46:42 AM
Re(4): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge. - By Craig G January 5, 2026 at 00:43:54 AM

Re(1): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge. - By TommyT January 3, 2026 at 08:06:18 PM
- Re(2): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge. - By Craig G January 4, 2026 at 03:08:20 PM
  - Re(3): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge. - By Craig G January 4, 2026 at 03:14:27 PM

Re(1): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By TheJaiAlaiKid January 3, 2026 at 12:18:33 PM
- Re(2): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Bob B. January 3, 2026 at 03:56:48 PM
  - Re(3): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By JAFan January 5, 2026 at 00:24:13 AM
    - Re(4): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By MJAFANALWAYS January 5, 2026 at 05:39:27 PM
    - Re(4): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Craig G January 5, 2026 at 00:51:19 AM
  - Re(3): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By TheJaiAliKid January 3, 2026 at 05:30:40 PM
Re(1): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Hellmethead January 3, 2026 at 05:17:20 AM
Re(1): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Craig G January 2, 2026 at 11:22:19 AM
- Addend-dumb - By Craig G January 2, 2026 at 11:31:22 AM
Re(1): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Tom K. January 2, 2026 at 08:55:11 AM
- Tom K is Right.. - By tobyonekanoby January 3, 2026 at 11:02:24 AM
- Re(2): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Bg January 2, 2026 at 11:52:31 AM

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