Re(4): Ok then%01 a Chalkie Challenge.

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Chalk Talk Terms of Service Re(4): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge.
Posted on January 5, 2026 at 00:43:54 AM by Craig G

Thanks for the response! Inspiring to see some thought put into this issue.

I think that using the input from a human expert who's paying full attention is defo going to be competitive (or better) with the output from computer algos.

However, FWIW, is we use the WPS results for both teams against the field to derive some figures, ie ~61% and ~43%, and then use the so-called Log5 formula, popularized by Bill James, for head-to-head match-ups, that works out to about 67.5% per point.

Personally, I would shade it closer to your figs, but regardless, as is, it's still safely beyond your cut point.

This seems like a classic bridge jumper case, actually better than most, where the would-be plunger is fortunate to have the opportunity. Wonder what the W&W bet limit might be.

Replies:

Re(1): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge. - By TommyT January 3, 2026 at 08:06:18 PM
- Re(2): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge. - By Craig G January 4, 2026 at 03:08:20 PM
  - Re(3): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge. - By Craig G January 4, 2026 at 03:14:27 PM

Re(1): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By TheJaiAlaiKid January 3, 2026 at 12:18:33 PM
- Re(2): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Bob B. January 3, 2026 at 03:56:48 PM
  - Re(3): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By JAFan January 5, 2026 at 00:24:13 AM
    - Re(4): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By MJAFANALWAYS January 5, 2026 at 05:39:27 PM
    - Re(4): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Craig G January 5, 2026 at 00:51:19 AM
  - Re(3): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By TheJaiAliKid January 3, 2026 at 05:30:40 PM
Re(1): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Hellmethead January 3, 2026 at 05:17:20 AM
Re(1): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Craig G January 2, 2026 at 11:22:19 AM
- Addend-dumb - By Craig G January 2, 2026 at 11:31:22 AM
Re(1): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Tom K. January 2, 2026 at 08:55:11 AM
- Tom K is Right.. - By tobyonekanoby January 3, 2026 at 11:02:24 AM
- Re(2): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Bg January 2, 2026 at 11:52:31 AM

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