Now adding empirical corroboration

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Posted on January 7, 2026 at 11:52:05 AM by Craig G

I forgot that I had partido sim code hanging around that I prev used in analyzing the short tiebreaks of the Basque partidos.

A quick repurposing, and now we can see how it compares to your binomial approach.

Your magic fig of .648 was an exact match. Taking it out to 100 million trials, we consistently get 95.0% vs 5.0% win rates. However, I believe you need 20 / 21 for breakeven, so 19/20 is tiny loss.

If we go to your 75% win rate for the dominant team, the underdog will win approx .00178, which makes for a rounded off identical match with your figs.

So at this point it all comes down to one thing - our best prob prediction for the individual points.

Every jai-alai expert could chime in with their estimate and it's just a matter of a table look-up.

The match itself was 71.4%, which is consistent with ROI = +4.2%

And, since the upper limit on ROI for this class of bet is the 5% from winning EVERY time, the .75 case is impressive at +4.8%. Considering the takeout, and what we imagine the avg ROI is for patrons on jai-alai bets in general, not bad.

So great work on your and your son's part to tease out the truth mathematically.

Replies:

Re(4): Easiest bet in jai alai history - By Jeff "Laca" Conway January 5, 2026 at 04:53:55 PM
- Re(5): Easiest bet in jai alai history - By Craig G January 7, 2026 at 12:08:06 PM
  - Re(6): Watch and Wager froze my account too - By Jeff "Laca" Conway January 7, 2026 at 05:54:13 PM
- Terri from Watch and Wager - By JAFan January 5, 2026 at 10:43:00 PM
  - Re(1): Terri from Watch and Wager - By Tiger January 6, 2026 at 09:46:42 AM
Re(4): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge. - By Craig G January 5, 2026 at 00:43:54 AM

Re(1): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge. - By TommyT January 3, 2026 at 08:06:18 PM
- Re(2): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge. - By Craig G January 4, 2026 at 03:08:20 PM
  - Re(3): Ok then, a Chalkie Challenge. - By Craig G January 4, 2026 at 03:14:27 PM

Re(1): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By TheJaiAlaiKid January 3, 2026 at 12:18:33 PM
- Re(2): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Bob B. January 3, 2026 at 03:56:48 PM
  - Re(3): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By JAFan January 5, 2026 at 00:24:13 AM
    - Re(4): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By MJAFANALWAYS January 5, 2026 at 05:39:27 PM
    - Re(4): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Craig G January 5, 2026 at 00:51:19 AM
  - Re(3): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By TheJaiAliKid January 3, 2026 at 05:30:40 PM
Re(1): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Hellmethead January 3, 2026 at 05:17:20 AM
Re(1): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Craig G January 2, 2026 at 11:22:19 AM
- Addend-dumb - By Craig G January 2, 2026 at 11:31:22 AM
Re(1): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Tom K. January 2, 2026 at 08:55:11 AM
- Tom K is Right.. - By tobyonekanoby January 3, 2026 at 11:02:24 AM
- Re(2): Txanikia and Kanpadegi - By Bg January 2, 2026 at 11:52:31 AM

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