Adjusted Campeonato Points
Posted on March 4, 2026 at 03:52:55 PM by Craig G
Let's see if I've got this right.
Based on the kind of post-number-biased picks that people make in Tiger's contests, it's clear that everybody with any savvy at all knows that the Spec 7 win probs are biased like this:
post % ratio
1 0.163 6.1
2 0.163 6.1
3 0.139 7.2
4 0.124 8.1
5 0.102 9.8
6 0.103 9.7
7 0.089 11.3
8 0.118 8.5
And yet, so often we evaluate performance with the crude 5-3-1. And for boleto, actual $$$ for the players, same thing. Damn.
So, being both curious and lazy, I asked ChatGPT to help me devise some multipliers that make much more sense.
Post Win pts Place pts Show pts
1 3.8 2.1 0.8
2 3.8 2.1 0.8
3 4.5 2.3 0.9
4 5.0 2.8 0.9
5 6.1 3.4 1.0
6 6.1 4.7 1.1
7 7.0 4.5 1.4
8 5.3 5.0 1.5
There ya go.
Tiger's Jai-Alai Chalk Talk
